EnterSpace

China’s spaceplane appears to be real (Defense Tech)

I generally avoid military space subjects, but this is an interesting piece from DefenseTech on the reported Chinese version of the U.S. X-37B spaceplane. It appears that rumors of the existence of the craft may be true. Known as Shenlong, it is shorter and smaller than the X-37B.

And like the X-37B, the only people who really know what it does or is capable of doing aren't talking.

From Defense Tech: 

That’s right, the rumors appear to be true. Beijing is joining the United States as the only nations with reusable spaceplane designs that are actually conducting test flights. Beijing reportedly sent its Divine Dragon — or Shenlong — space plane aloft for a successful atmospheric test flight in January, 2011.

The U.S. uses its two X-37B spaceplanes for incredibly long missions doing super classified work in place, one can only guess that China’s Divine Dragon will be used for similar purposes.

Now, what’s the real news in this year and a half old story? Well, according to DT’s go-to China expert Andrew Erickson, its the speed at which China is closing the gap between the fielding of advanced technology compared to the U.S. Remember when then-defense secretary Robert Gates last year dismissed China’s new J-20 stealth fighter by saying that the PLA is about 20 years behind the Pentagon in terms of technology? The launch of the Divine Dragon less than a after the X-37B made its first space flight may be an indicator that China is closing that double decade technology gap, according to Erickson. (Notice how the Divine Dragon shown above looks remarkably similar to the X-37B? I would bet that plenty of useful info on the American program ended up in China as a result of cyber attacks — a key enabler to China’s ability to close the tech gap quickly.)

Here’s an excerpt from one of his latest analysis pieces on China’s military rise, titled Shenlong ‘Divine Dragon’ Takes Flight: Is China developing its first spaceplane?

Beijing may be entering the spaceplane era faster than many would have predicted. A similarly-militarily-relevant system appears to be emerging with the development of China’s own vehicle. Multiple Chinese-language media outlets state that on 8 January 2011, China completed a test flight of the Shenlong (神龙/Divine Dragon) spaceplane.

The test flight announcement from a Sha’anxi TV station came within a month of the U.S. X-37B orbital vehicle’s return to earth after its first test flight and come almost simultaneously with China’s test flight of its J-20 fighter prototype. This reflects China’s growing technical proficiency in the aerospace sector. It hints at China’s pursuit of space systems that can potentially switch quickly between civilian and military missions.

Shenlong’s test also reflects a shrinking time gap between when the U.S. first reveals a prototype military system and when China publicly shows a system comparable in type (if not equivalent in capabilities or immediately operational). For previous aerospace developments, China typically revealed its systems’ existence at least 15 years after the U.S. first showed its analogous platforms.

The immediate implication is that in some areas of space operations, China may be attempting to emulate the U.S. and develop advanced capabilities that could give it strategic advantages; as well as to reveal selected development efforts in order to further patriotism at home and deterrence abroad. Given the high U.S. reliance on space-based C4ISR capabilities, Chinese space platform developments such as Shenlong warrant close attention.

Now, what are the strategic implications of China fielding its own spaceplanes? Here’s what Erickson has to say.

At a minimum, Shenlong appears to be a technological development/validation program. A successful Chinese spaceplane program would have two key strategic implications. First, on the broad level, it would signify that the Chinese space program has come one step closer to being able to build a Space Shuttle-type capability. On a related note, further test flights, particularly if they involve X-37B-style maneuvering by a larger derivative of Shenlong, would also strongly suggest that China’s command and control system for space assets has become much more capable, with commensurate implications for both military and civil space operations. Which service would control Shenlong remains uncertain, as GAD, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), and even the Second Artillery contend for control of operational space assets—and some Chinese thinkers argue for the formation of a separate Space Force (天军). Not surprisingly, as Kevin Pollpeter informs us, PLAAF-connected writers are already citing spaceplane development as yet another reason why their service should handle space operations.

Read the full report over at China Sign Post.

via defensetech.org

Chinese Espionage Campaign Targets U.S. Space Technology (Bloomberg Businessweek)

By John Walcott

Bloomberg, April 18, 2012

China is stealing U.S. military and civilian space technology in an effort to disrupt U.S. access to intelligence, navigation and communications satellites, according to a report from the State and Defense Departments.

“China’s continuing efforts to acquire U.S. military and dual-use technologies are enabling China’s science and technology base to diminish the U.S. technological edge in areas critical to the development of weapons and communications systems,” the report released yesterday found. “Additionally, the technologies China has acquired could be used to develop more advanced technologies by shortening Chinese R&D cycles.”

Two U.S. intelligence officials said that while the Chinese military isn’t preparing to fight a major land war, its goal is to deny the U.S. military access to the other four arenas in which a war might be fought -- the seas around China, the airspace surrounding the country, space, and cyberspace. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified.

Because China’s closed political system discourages the independent thinking that spawns innovation, the Chinese rely heavily on stealing and reverse-engineering new technologies from Europe and America, both officials said. “Economic espionage, supported by extensive open-source research, computer network exploitation and targeted intelligence operations also enables China to obtain technologies to supplement indigenous military modernization efforts,” the State and Defense departments said in an appendix to yesterday’s report. The agencies said China should be excluded from recommendations they made to ease restrictions on exports of communications and remote-sensing satellites and equipment.

North Korea moves rocket into place for launch (BBC News)

An unwelcome but not unexpected development. If not now, then soon North Korea will likely become the tenth country to independently place a satellite in orbit. Is a new Asian space race heating up? If so it will be a complex, multiple series of races among China, India, Japan, Korea and other emerging space powers - as well as the U.S. - driven largely by considerations of national prestige and dual-use technology development. 

However, it is curious that foreign journalists were invited to the launch site. This is a first for North Korea as far as I know, and I'm not sure what it indicates other than, perhaps, an understanding by North Korea's leaders of how provocative this launch will be perceived by its neighbors to be, and thus an attempt to show their lack of overt hostile intent. Overt being the operative word. In this launch.

Harbor no illusions about North Korea.

From the BBC: 

North Korea has moved into place a long-range rocket for a controversial launch later this month - amid reports it is also planning a nuclear test.